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OPINION: RBC See CPI At High End Of Consensus Range

CANADA

RBC see headline CPI inflation increasing 0.2pps to 4.9% Y/Y in Dec, the high end of the consensus range with a median of 4.8% Y/Y for Wednesday's release.

  • A dip in energy price inflation from oil prices being hit by Omicron-related weakness was likely offset by “persistent strength in expenses tied to home and car purchases, which combined explain roughly half of the increase in ex-food & energy prices relative to pre-pandemic levels to-date”.
  • They expect headline inflation to plateau “before dialing lower in coming months as pandemic ‘base-effects’ start to fade. But pressures from ongoing supply chain challenges, higher input prices, and strong consumer demand are expected to continue to broaden”.
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