Opposition Moving Closer And Closer To Netanyahu Ouster

Israel's opposition parties are moving closer and closer to ousting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu after a weekend of talks led to the likelihood of a broad gov't being formed involving parties of the left and right with the support of Arab parties. The potential gov't, involving 7 parties (Yesh Atid, Blue and White, Labor, Yisrael Beiteinu, New Hope, Meretz, and Yamina) with the potential of additional support from two more (Joint List and Ra'am), would be extremely unwieldy given the spectrum of political views present among its members.

• The prospective agreement outlined over the weekend has right-wing Yamina party head Naftali Bennett serving as PM, before handing over power to centrist Yesh Atid head Yair Lapid at an unspecified time in the future.
• In order to reach the 61 seats required to oust Netanyahu, the gov't will be reliant on the support of the two Arab-interest parties, the leftist Joint List and Islamist Ra'am party. While these parties may not join the gov't, they appear likely to lend their votes to a Bennett gov't in a confirmatory vote of confidence in order to oust Netanyahu from power after a 12-year period in office.
• The Jerusalem Post is running a story this morning stating that Knesset Speaker Yariv Levin, from Netanyahu's Likud Party, could seek to delay the confirmatory vote for up to a week, placing pressure on the unity of the prospective gov't to hold together at a tense political time.

Chart 1. Israeli Knesset After March 2021 Election

Source: Israeli Knesset, MNI

• A gov't involving the far-right Yisrael Beiteinu and Yamina - both in favour of Israeli settlements in the West Bank - and the green leftist Meretz - staunchly opposed to settlements - is inevitably going to have some major political ructions and may not last long beyond its formation.