Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Opinion polling from Spain ahead of the country's general election, due by December at the latest, shows the main opposition centre-right People's Party (PP) retaining a relatively consistent lead over PM Pedro Sanchez's centre-left Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE). However, the PP still sits short of the support required to win an overall majority in the Congress of Deputies. This raises the prospect of the right-wing nationalist Vox either entering into coalition with the PP or supporting a minority gov't in a confidence and supply agreement.
- Either of the above scenarios would mark a watershed in Spanish politics, marking the first time that an avowedly right-wing nationalist party has been in gov't or supported a gov't since Spain's transition to democracy in the mid 1970s.
- The PP and Vox already work together in coalition/confidence and supply agreements in some of Spain's autonomous communities.
- Support for the far-left Unidas Podemos is steady according to polls, but the group's potential electoral alliance with the United Left and other leftist groups under the 'Sumar' banner could see a boost in support. This in turn could be enough to deny PP-Vox a majority and provide another term for PM Sanchez (albeit at the head of an unwieldy leftist bloc).
Chart 1. General Election Opinion Polling, % and 6-Poll Moving Average
Source: Sociometrica, GAD3, Electopanel, Sigma Dos, Target Point, 40dB, Data 10, InvyMark, Celeste-Tel, NC Report, DYM, IMOP, CIS, KeyData, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.