MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - S&P E-Minis Fresh All-Time High

Price Signal Summary - S&P E-Minis Bull Cycle Extends       

• In the equity space, a bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains in play and Thursday’s gains reinforce the current bullish condition. The contract has traded through a key and major resistance at 5785.00, the Jul 16 high and a bull trigger, confirming a resumption of the long-term uptrend. Sights are on the 5800.00 handle next. Initial support lies at 5638.14, the 20-day EMA. EUROSTOXX 50 futures have traded higher this week as the contract extends the recovery since Sep 10. It is still possible that recent gains are corrective. MA studies remain in a bear-mode position and this highlights a downtrend. A reversal lower would refocus attention on key short-term support at 4729.00, Sep 10 low. Key resistance to watch is 4998.00, Sep 3 high. A break would be bullish.                                                                                                          
• In FX, the short-term outlook in EURUSD remains bullish and support at the 20-day EMA, at 1.1081, has been pierced but remains intact for now. The  resumption of gains opens 1.1202, the Aug 26 high and a bull trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. A clear break of the 20-day EMA would instead signal scope for a deeper retracement. GBPUSD has traded to a fresh trend high this week. The move higher has resulted in a print above key resistance at 1.3266, the Aug 27 high. This confirms a resumption of the medium-term uptrend. Sights are on 1.3362 next, 1.618 projection of the Jun 27 - Jul 17 - Aug 8 price swing. Initial firm support is 1.3128, the 20-day EMA. USDJPY is trading above its most recent low, however, short-term gains are considered corrective. Bears remain in the driver’s seat and the pair has once again traded to a fresh cycle low this week. The recent breach of key support at 141.70, the Aug 5 low, confirms a resumption of the downtrend. Sights are on 139.00 next, 1.382 projection of the Aug 15 - 26 - Sep 3 price swing. Firm resistance is 143.56, the 20-day EMA. It has been pierced, but remains intact for now.         
• On the commodity front, a bullish structure in Gold remains intact and the metal has traded, once again, to a fresh all-time high. The move higher confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on $2613.3 next, 2.00 projection of the Jul 25 - Aug 2 - Aug 5 price swing. Firm support lies at $2530.2, the 20-day EMA. In the oil space, WTI futures have traded higher this week. The recovery since Sep 9, appears - for now - to be a correction. Recent weakness reinforced a bearish condition and note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode set-up, highlighting a dominant downtrend. A resumption of the trend would open $63.89 next, a 1.618 projection of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 - Jul 5 price swing. The 20-day EMA, at $70.20, has been pierced. The next key resistance is $72.52, the 50-day EMA.  
• In the FI space, Bund futures have pulled back from their recent highs. The move down has resulted in a break of support at the 20-day EMA, at 134.29. This signals scope for a deeper retracement near-term, potentially towards the 50-day EMA, at 133.58. Clearance of this average would undermine a bullish theme. For bulls, a reversal higher would refocus attention on key resistance and the bull trigger at 135.66, the Aug 5 high. A bull cycle in Gilt futures is still in play, however, the pullback from Tuesday’s peak highlights a correction and Thursday’s move lower reinforces this theme. The extension is allowing an overbought condition to unwind. Support at 100.01, the 20-day EMA, has been pierced. The clear break of this average signals scope for a deeper retracement and exposes 99.29, the Sep 10 low. A reversal higher would refocus sights on 101.54, Sep 17 high.

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