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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
HUNGARY
Prime Minister Viktor Orban's right-wing populist Fidesz party retains its relatively narrow, but stable, opinion polling lead over the United for Hungary opposition alliance in the latest survey from Nezopont ahead of the 3 April general election.
- Nezopont: Fidesz: 51.5% (+1.5), United for Hungary: 43% (=), Two-Tailed Dog Party: 3% (=), Our Homeland Movement: 2% (-1). Fieldwork: 16-21 Mar. Chgs w/14-16 Feb. 1,000 respondents.
- At present, Orban's long-standing political friendship with Russian President Vladimir Putin has dont little to damage his electoral prospect. Orban has sought to frame the election as a battle of Hungarian values against EU social liberalism enforced from Brussels, and at present it appears that this tactic is working.
- Orban's Fidesz party frequently clears the 50% of the vote mark or sits just below, while the United for Hungary alliance led by conservative candidate Peter Marki-Zay often records support around 45%.
- Betting markets on the Hungarian election are relatively illiquid. Nevertheless, Smarkets data shows an implied probability of 92% that Orban is PM on 1 July 2022, compared to an 8% probability that Marki-Zay leads the gov't. As recently as 6 Feb, Marki-Zay's implied probability of being PM stood as high as 34% to Orban's 63%.
Chart 1. General Election Opinion Polling (Minor Parties Excluded), 6-Poll Moving Average and %
Source: Nezopont, Publicus, IDEA, e-benchmark, Republikon, Zavecz Research, Real-PR93, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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