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Origin Energy (Baa2, BBB): Earnings Miss Estimates

CREDIT UPDATE

Origin Energy reported disappointing full-year profit with an earnings miss and disappointing FY25 Energy Markets ebitda forecast which fell short of analyst expectations and have overshadowed strong cash flow numbers and positive performance in other areas including LNG trading. Equity saw it's largest one day drop since June 2022, with equity down about 10%.


Financials:

  • FY24 Underlying Profit: A$1.18b, up 58% y/y, below the A$1.38b estimate.
  • Net Income: A$1.40b, up 32% y/y, below the A$1.61b estimate.
  • Underlying Ebitda: A$3.53b, up +14% y/y, below the A$3.698b estimates
  • Revenue: A$16.14b, down 2.1% y/y, slightly above the A$16.12b estimate.
  • Final Dividend: A$0.275 per share, up from A$0.20 y/y.
Origin has two outstanding bonds, the € ORGAU 2029 which has weakened about 15bps verses peers (€ AUSGF & € ANVAU) over the past month, while the A$ ORGAU 2027 is little changed today and has traded inline with peers over the past 6 months.

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