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OUTLOOK: BoC Q2 Surveys

CANADA
  • The BoC’s heavily weighted business and consumer surveys are released at 1030ET after inflation expectations within the Q1 surveys played an important role in supporting the first of the 50bp hikes in April.
  • The Q1 BOS in particular showed a record 70% of firms expecting average inflation above 3% over the next two years, more firms seeing it taking 2-3 years than 1-2 years to get back to 2% and 81% expecting some or significant difficult in meeting demand.
  • One of the few relatively softer areas had been long-term consumer inflation expectations falling from 3.5% to 3.23%, but with potential for a drifting higher if the US U.Mich equivalent is anything to go by.
  • These surveys follow more timely growth implications from the S&P Global mfg PMI for June at 0930ET.
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