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Outlook Improves Despite Limited Oil and Gas Activity Change: Dallas Fed

ENERGY

Oil and gas production decreased in Q1 2024, according to oil and gas executives responding to the Dallas Fed Energy Survey. The outlook however improved even as there was no positive change in oil and gas activity.

  • On average, WTI is expected at $80/bbl at year-end 2024 with a range from $70/bbl to $120/bbl. WTI is expected at $83/bbl two years from now and $90/bbl five years from now.
  • The Henry Hub natural gas price is expected at $2.59/mmbtu at year-end, $3.18.mmbtu in two years, and $3.94/mmbtu in five years.
  • The oil production index moved down from 5.3 in the fourth quarter to -4.1 in the first quarter. The natural gas production index fell sharply from 17.9 to -17.0.
  • Activity in the oil and gas sector was relatively unchanged in the first quarter of 2024 with the business activity index at 2.0 suggesting little to no growth during the quarter.
  • Costs increased at a slightly faster pace for both oilfield services and E&P firms. The input cost index for oilfield services firms increased from 21.3 to 31.2 with firms reporting modest deterioration in nearly all indicators.


Source: Dallas Fed Energy Survey

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