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Outperforms Broader USD Rebound, Consumer Sentiment Continues To Recover


NZD/USD was somewhat volatile post the Asia close on Thursday. Resistance was evident above 0.6180, while a pull back to 0.6120 saw demand emerge. We track at 0.6155/60 in early Friday Asia Pac dealing, which is close to unchanged versus end Wednesday levels. This is meaningful outperformance against other G10 (ex CAD), with the BBDXY up 0.41%, the DXY +0.72%.

  • Broader USD sentiment continued to recover on Thursday, with US yields up firmly from recent lows, the 10yr to 4.34%, +8bps. Softer headline US data was brushed aside with some firmer underlying details supporting the greenback.
  • Equity sentiment was mostly positive (ex the Nasdaq), while aggregate commodity indices (-0.51%) were dragged down by lower oil prices post OPEC.
  • For NZD/USD focus will remain on upside moves, post this week's hawkish RBNZ hold. A break of 0.6200 would pave the way for 0.6274 (late July highs). 50% of Fib retracement of the mid July highs to Oct lows rests at 0.6093.
  • AUD/NZD remains faded on upticks, although the pair hasn't been able to break sub 1.0730 in a meaningful way.
  • On the data front, we have already had the Nov ANZ consumer sentiment print, which rose 4.3% to 91.9 (back to early 2022 levels). Earlier NZ core logic house prices showed a +0.7% m/m rise, -4.5% y/y outcome for Nov.

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