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NZD: Outperforms On Global Equity Rally, NZD/USD Close To 100-day EMA Resistance

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NZD/USD was the top G10 performer for Friday's session, up nearly 0.90%. Commodity FX/higher beta plays mostly outperformed, with yen the weakest performer (off 0.56%). The Kiwi tracks near 0.5745/50 in early Monday dealings, just short of intra-session highs from Friday (0.5756). Equity sentiment surged in global markets through Friday, aiding NZD's outperformance. 

  • For NZD/USD technicals, we are close to the 100-day EMA resistance point, near 0.5760/65. Recent moves under the 20 and 50-day EMA support points (close to 0.5700) have been supported.
  • US equities saw gains of over 2% on Friday for the SPX and Nasdaq. The Senate passing a bill to avert a government shut down aided sentiment. EU equities were boosted by optimism around German having found a potential solution to the debt brake passage.
  • NZD/JPY rose through the 20-day EMA (near 85.18), the pair last tracks close to 85.50/55. 86.29 is the 50-day EMA. Yen was also undermined by the initial pay round tally from Rengo, which suggests the final pay tally may be below estimates.
  • On the data front, the Feb PMI for services fell to 49.1 from 50.4 in Jan. The trend still appears to be improving from mid 2024 lows, but is showing volatility from month to month.
  • REINZ house prices rose 1.7%m/m in Feb, but were still down in y/y terms.  
  • The main data focus this week will be the Q4 GDP print, out on Thursday. 
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NZD/USD was the top G10 performer for Friday's session, up nearly 0.90%. Commodity FX/higher beta plays mostly outperformed, with yen the weakest performer (off 0.56%). The Kiwi tracks near 0.5745/50 in early Monday dealings, just short of intra-session highs from Friday (0.5756). Equity sentiment surged in global markets through Friday, aiding NZD's outperformance. 

  • For NZD/USD technicals, we are close to the 100-day EMA resistance point, near 0.5760/65. Recent moves under the 20 and 50-day EMA support points (close to 0.5700) have been supported.
  • US equities saw gains of over 2% on Friday for the SPX and Nasdaq. The Senate passing a bill to avert a government shut down aided sentiment. EU equities were boosted by optimism around German having found a potential solution to the debt brake passage.
  • NZD/JPY rose through the 20-day EMA (near 85.18), the pair last tracks close to 85.50/55. 86.29 is the 50-day EMA. Yen was also undermined by the initial pay round tally from Rengo, which suggests the final pay tally may be below estimates.
  • On the data front, the Feb PMI for services fell to 49.1 from 50.4 in Jan. The trend still appears to be improving from mid 2024 lows, but is showing volatility from month to month.
  • REINZ house prices rose 1.7%m/m in Feb, but were still down in y/y terms.  
  • The main data focus this week will be the Q4 GDP print, out on Thursday.