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Outperforms Weaker CNH Trend, As Local Equities Back To June 2022 Levels

TWD

Spot USD/TWD is backing away from recent highs, last around 30.74, around 0.25% firmer in TWD terms for the session so far. We are back below the simple 200-day MA, which comes in at 30.78, but this doesn't look to be a major inflection point at this stage. The 50 and 100-day MAs sit lower (30.61 and 30.52 respectively). Recent highs have been between 30.80/85.

  • Better local equity trends are aiding the TWD, particularly relative to the softer China currency trend. The chart below plots USD/TWD against local equities, which are inverted on the chart.
  • The TWSE has broken above the 16000 level today, fresh highs back to June last year. There still remains a wedge between these strong levels and USD/TWD, although CNY weakness, coupled with a yield differential still in favor of the USD will be providing an offset.
  • Yesterday saw $625.6mn in net equity inflows, the highest daily inflow since late March. This came after Tuesday's $292.4mn in inflows, although for the past month we have still seen ~3bn in net outflows.
  • Optimism around greater tech integration/investment with Japan (see this link) is spurring gains, while potential Apple demand was the other positive, which we highlighted late yesterday (see this link).

Fig 1: USD/TWD Versus Local Equities (Inverted)

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg

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