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Overnight Vols Climbing, At Highest Since July ECB

EUR
  • EUR/USD breaking down slightly in recent trade, with the pair printing new lows of 1.0035 to near the 38.2% retracement of yesterday's rally. Nonetheless the pair is still comfortably higher on the week (Monday's open: $0.9850).
  • A few contending forces worth noting with the ECB rate decision, a possible pick-up of month-end flow in NY hours (today marks M/E value date) and a slew of option expiries for today's cut: $1.0000(E1.5bln), $1.0025-40(E1.1bln), $1.0050-60(E711mln)
  • Overnight option volatility for EUR/USD has suitably climbed, and is now clearing 20 points for the first time since the July ECB meeting (see below chart), which was the highest overnight vol reading since March 2020:

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