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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessMNI ASIA MARKETS OPEN: Tsy Curves Reverse Course Ahead Wed CPI
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Overnight Vols See Relatively Muted Pre-NFP Interest
- FX options markets are pricing a relatively more muted response to today’s payrolls release, with the vol premium added ahead of NFP among the lowest of the year so far.
- EUR/USD overnight vols peaked at 12.9 points yesterday, below the 2023 pre-NFP average of 15.5, and following the pattern of lower highs in implied vol ahead of payrolls across the year. Markets priced the largest swing in EUR/USD ahead of the January payrolls report (February 3rd) - with implied topping out at 19.8 points.
- Overnight straddle break-evens price a ~45 pip swing in EUR/USD for today’s NY cut – notably lower than the ~70 pip average pricing of a pre-payrolls swing so far in 2023.
- This keeps focus on the more sizeable strikes rolling off at the cut today. EUR/USD sees over E2bln roll off between $1.0950-$1.1000 at the 10am NY cut.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.