ÖVP Likely Kingmakers Post-Election, Could Swing Gov't Right Or Left

Latest polling for the Austrian federal election taking place on 29 September shows the right-wing nationalist Freedom Party (FPÖ) retaining first position and on course to emerge as the largest party in the National Council. However, it is the centre-right People's Party (ÖVP), currently the senior partner in the governing coalition, that is set to emerge as the most important party post-election, serving as the kingmaker to either a right-wing or broad centre-left/centre-right gov't.

• The FPÖ continues to poll around the 26-30% range it has been in for some months. The ÖVP has for the past three months overtaken the centre-left Social Democrats (SPÖ) and is now on course to come in second place with around 22-25% support. The SPO is third with ~20% support.
• As EU Observer notes: "While a far-right victory would allow the FPÖ to hold coalition talks and appoint the chancellor, their only viable option for a needed coalition partner remains the ÖVP, the lone party that has not categorically ruled out a coalition with the FPÖ, only a cabinet including hardliner and FPÖ-leader [Herbert] Kickl."
• The FPÖ sits as part of the far-right Patriots for Europe group in the European Parliament, setting them further to the right than Italian PM Giorgia Meloni's Brothers of Italy. As such, an FPÖ-led coalition would mark the most right-wing gov't in the eurozone, risking political friction with Brussels and other member states.

Chart 1. Austria Election Opinion Polling, % and 6-Poll Moving Average