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Pair Hovers Just Above Key Support


AUD/USD had an up and down session, finishing the session with losses of 23 pips. The pair last down 3 pips on the session at 0.7330.

  • From a technical perspective AUD/USD remains in a range, but edged lower into the Friday close. The trend outlook is unchanged and bearish. This follows the recent breach of a channel base drawn from the Feb 25 high. Despite the fact that price has moved back inside the channel area, the move lower marks an important technical break, signalling potential for 0.7235 next, a 1.236 projection of the Feb 25 - Apr 1 - May 10 price swing. On the upside, initial resistance is at 0.7429, Jul 19 high.
  • Data earlier showed ANZ consumer confidence fell to 98.6 from 101.8 in the previous week. The NAB business survey is the only domestic release remaining on the docket today. The domestic COVID-19 situation is likely to dominate headline flow again.
  • CBA expects AUD to remain under pressure today, and looks to US inflation data tomorrow: "We expect AUD/USD to stay heavy today but not wander too far from current levels. AUD may lift modestly tomorrow if US inflation steps down as we expect. And put a nail in the coffin of some of the breathless reporting about a return of 1970s 'stagflation' (high inflation and high unemployment)."

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