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Pandora (Baa2, BBB; S) beats on 4Q sales, FY24 guidance & 1Q trading conditions look positive

CONSUMER CYCLICALS

Strong beat in 4Q online sales (in line with retail reporting trends we've seen). Strong beat in US organic growth sales that's been shared by Germany & France beats, but offset by flat growth (vs. c+1.25%) in UK & a miss in Italy.

Cash was lower than consensus (higher PPE Capex the driver), Debt up over the FY (as expected) including on the ~DKK 3.7b issuance - net impact was leverage (NIBD to EBITDA) increase from 0.8* to 1.1* (targets 0.8*-1.5*). Given ratings were initiated in March/on issuance not much to see here.

Trading conditions are positive are "healthy" in the 1Q thus far - sees like for like growth in high single-digits. Its guiding to FY24 organic growth of 6-9% (c4%) but EBIT margin of 25% stays flat to FY23.

Dividend of 18/share below expectations for 19 & a new buyback program of 4b over the next year (vs. 5b last year) with 1.3 due in the 1H.

Its single sus-linked €500m 28's (issued in March of last year) was also given a separate mention - due to a 'recalculation event' which seems to be a lift in baseline/2019 Scope 3 emissions from 282,964 when issued to 309,469 tonnes CO2 - no impact re. targets with reported Scope 3 reduction of -15% in '23 (vs. new baselines) - in line with initial expected trajectory.

Equities marginally up, the 28's (Baa2, BBB; S) are streaming mids 2bps tighter, looks to trade fair given single line issuer.

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