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Paring Losses At The NY Crossover, Still Bear Steeper On The Day

US TSYS
  • Treasuries have pared losses around the NY crossover after the 10Y touched a fresh cycle high of 4.98% in an extension of yesterday’s sell-off. They still see a further bear steepening with cash benchmarks 0.5-5bp cheaper.
  • 2s10s have touched session highs of -26.7bps, closing in on the -24.5bps seen after payrolls at highs since Oct’22.
  • TYZ3 trades at 105-19 (-09) off fresh lows of 105-12+ for another sizeable step towards latest support seen at 105-01+ (2.0% 10-dma envelope). Cumulative volumes are again elevated at 450k.
  • Fedspeak: Powell headlines at 1200ET but we also hear from multiple FOMC participants with various prepared remarks to be released, including Vice Chair Jefferson.
  • Data: Initial jobless claims for a payrolls reference week, Philly Fed mfg and existing homes sales.
  • Note/bond issuance: US Tsy sells $22B 5Y TIPS (1300ET)
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy sells $95B 4-week and $85B 8-week bills (1130ET)
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