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Free AccessPartial Retracement Of Post-FOMC Bull Steepening
- Cash Tsys bear flatten in a partial retracement of yesterday’s surge on the FOMC announcement and in particular Powell’s press conference.
- The net impact remains one of a sizeable bull steepening though, with front-end yields down 12bps since shortly before the policy announcement compared to long-end yields down 4bps. It leaves 2s10s at 27bps, the high of the past couple weeks but within the wide range of moves from early April when it swung from -10bps to above 40bps.
- With 10Y inflation breakevens rising on the dovish reaction to the presser, real yields have carried the brunt of the decline in yields, currently at 7bps off highs of ~20bps yesterday. That said positive real yields remain rare in the post-pandemic world, only seen consistently this week.
- 2YY +4.9bps at 2.691%, 5YY +3.6bps at 2.948%, 10YY +2.2bps at 2.956% ad 30YY unchg at 3.035%.
- TYM2 is down 12 ticks at 118-25 on slightly above average volumes. Support is eyed at the bear trigger of 118-04+ (May 3/4 low) whilst resistance is seen at the 20-day EMA of 119-28.
- Data: Preliminary Q1 productivity and ULCs (0830ET) should be the pick of today’s data, with eyes ahead on tomorrow’s payrolls.
- Bill issuance: US Tsy $35B 4W, $30B 8W bill auctions (1130ET)
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.