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Participation Rates Unwind Recent Progress

US DATA
  • The participation rate offered a large surprise lower in Dec at 62.5% (cons 62.8) after 62.78% (initial 62.83).
  • The move was driven by sharp declines in the 16-24 and 55+ categories both falling -0.4pps to more than reverse 0.2pp increases in November.
  • The 16-24 tends to be volatile but the 55+ figure is of note at its back to last year’s lows and dashes hopes of the early retirees returning to the labor force (with the rate 1.9pps below pre-pandemic levels).
  • Prime age (25-54) participation rates meanwhile only dipped a tenth to 83.2% in December, but in doing so sees a further shift off mid-2023 highs of 83.5% for a modestly hawkish development.
  • From the FOMC minutes:"Participants viewed improvements in labor supply and the easing of labor demand as both having contributed to the labor market coming into better balance. Supply had improved because of higher labor force participation and immigration, with continued solid productivity growth also supporting the productive capacity of the economy."

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