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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US DATA
- Payrolls growth from the establishment survey was extremely close to consensus in September, rising 263k (cons 255k) with only +11k of revisions, led by the private sector rising +288k.
- AHE growth was at the margin slightly softer than expected: it increased 0.3% M/M (cons just had 0.3% in a split with 0.4%) after the same pace in Aug (revised slightly softer to 2.d.p), confirming a minor moderation in trend wage growth to a still strong nominal rate but likely not keeping up with core CPI inflation.
- The household survey had more hawkish implications: the u/e rate fell from 3.65% to 3.49% (consensus torn between 3.6-3.7%), close to the joint-historical low of 3.46% in July, along with a 0.3pt drop in the underemployment rate to joint lows of 6.7%.
- This was helped lower by a decline in the participation rate to 62.3% in a pullback after August’s jump to a year-to-date high of 62.36%. The emerging trend of a levelling out in overall participation below pre-pandemic levels keeping the labour market historically tight, and one that doesn't yet show signs of an upward drift in u/e rate towards the 3.9% the median FOMC member expects for end’22.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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