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PCE Data Less Hawkish in Light of Thu's Q1 Beat, Supercore Tempers Bid

US TSYS
  • Treasuries looked to finish mostly higher Friday, curves flatter with the short end mildly weaker (2s10s -3.478 at -33.043). Intermediates trade near the middle of this morning's wide post-data range, Jun'24 10Y +6.5 at 107-18 (107-09L/107-27.5H).
  • Treasury futures trade higher after the latest PCE data comes out in-line to slightly higher -- deemed less hawkish in light of Thursday's Q1 beat:
    • PCE Deflator MoM (0.3% vs. 0.3%), YoY (2.7% vs. 2.6% est, 2.5% prior)
    • PCE Core Deflator MoM (0.3% vs. 0.3% est), YoY (2.8% vs. 2.7% est, 2.8% prior).
    • Treasuries support receded after a very strong Supercore: 0.39% M/M in Mar after 0.19 (initial 0.18) in Feb and 0.75 (initial 0.66) in Jan).
    • Meanwhile, Personal Income (0.5% vs. 0.5% est, 0.3% prior), Personal Spending (0.8% vs. 0.6% est, 0.8% prior), Real Personal Spending (0.5% vs. 0.3% est, 0.4% prior).
    • Treasury futures held gains after the latest University of Michigan data: Sentiment (77.2 vs. 77.9 est), Current Conditions (79.0 vs. 79.3 prior), 1 Yr Inflation (3.2% vs. 3.1% prior), 5-10 Yr Inflation unchanged at 3.0% vs. 3.0% est.
    • Focus turns to next week's FOMC policy annc on Wednesday, followed by the latest employment data next Friday.
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