January 15, 2025 11:05 GMT
US INFLATION: PCE Forecasts Adjusted Upward After PPI (1/2)
US INFLATION
Some revisions to pre-PPI estimates of core PCE that we have seen are understandably to the upside, on the order of about 0.03pp (almost entirely due to the outsized increase in airfare PPI, offset at least partially by other PCE-relevant components, as we had flagged yesterday). Pre-PPI, core PCE consensus was 0.20% M/M, and if that is correct, now it looks like the gap between core CPI (0.24% consensus) and PCE will be closer to zero.
Post-PPI release core PCE M/M estimates include:
- Goldman Sachs: 0.22% (0.18% pre-PPI)
- ING: 0.3% (only a rounded forecast provided)
- Nomura: 0.272% (0.242% pre-PPI)
- Wrightson ICAP: 0.2% ((only a rounded forecast provided; notes the PPI components did not change their estimates).
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