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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US DATA
- There’s a chance that rounding overstates the size of a miss in core PCE, if one is seen. The Bloomberg survey shows a median 0.3 with an average of 0.27% M/M for September, nearly all taken from before yesterday’s Q3 advance. As we noted at the time, the Q3 average points to circa 0.23% M/M in September assuming no revisions.
- No revisions is a big assumption though, so we watch the latest monthly profile behind the sizeable moderation in the quarterly pace from 3.7% to 2.4% annualized in Q3.
- Within the core PCE deflator, core services ex-housing will inevitably be watched closely after the CPI version jumped from 0.37% to 0.61% M/M. Morgan Stanley after CPI and PPI estimated this at 0.34% in Sept after the 0.14% in Aug (note that this was part of their initial core PCE estimate of 0.27% which post-Q3 data is closer to 0.24%).
- We also watch the personal spending and income details within the report. Real spending still looks on track for the 0.3% M/M to yield the 4.0% annualized seen. It follows a tepid 0.05% in August and strong 0.64% in July so revisions will be watched for latest momentum heading into Q4.
- The household savings rate could also have dropped more sharply, with no revisions yielding a 3.4% in September at what would be back to late 2022 levels having most recently peaked at 5.3% in May.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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