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Latest opinion polling from Italy shows the centre-left Democratic Party (PD) leading the pack ahead of the right-wing nationalist Brothers of Italy (FdI), as speculation mounts as to whether PM Mario Draghi will seek the presidency in the upcoming election on 24 January.

  • The PD holds a narrow lead, but it is the parties of the right that sit in the box seat. The combined polling support for FdI, the populist League, and the centre-right Forza Italia is well above that of the combined parties of the left/centre (PD, 5-Star Movement, Article 1, Green Europe).
Chart 1. General Election Opinon Polling, %

Source: Noto, Index, SWG, Euromedia, Termometro Politico, Ipsos, Demos & Pi, Ixe, Tecne, Demopolis, MNI

  • Italian politics remains in a state of heightened uncertainty. Should PM Mario Draghi seek the presidency there is no guarantee his successor could hold together the unwieldy grand coalition governing Italy, risking snap elections in 2022 amid the pandemic, cost of living crisis, and EU COVID fund disbursement.
  • However, if he remains as PM there is no clear candidate to take on the presidency. Former PM Silvio Berlusconi is seen to be keen to take on the position, but would face substantial opposition from the left.