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Pending Home Sales Suggest Little Let Up In Housing Pressures

US DATA
  • Pending home sales posted a smaller-than-expected decline in July of -1% (cons. -2.6%) from a slightly downward revised -8.9% in June for -22.5% Y/Y.
  • It’s a small reprieve compared to the sizeable declines in both existing (-5.9%) and new (-12.6%) sales in July but is of little comfort at the lowest level since 2011 when looking through the Apr’20 low.
  • Its leading characteristic suggests further downside ahead for existing sales, which are already down 25% from their January peak [see chart] and it follows weekly purchase mortgage applications hitting new lows since 2016 when looking beyond the initial pandemic slump.
  • It comes as Tsy front end yields continue to move higher, with 2YY +3bps on the day at 3.36% and within 10bps of June highs that in turn were the highest since late 2007.

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