Pension Reforms Face Repeal Once National Assembly Reconvenes Post-Games

As the Paris Olympic Games enters its final days, focus within France will soon turn back to the country's political situation. Incumbent PM Gabriel Attal's resignation was accepted by President Emmanuel Macron in late July, but Attal and his cabinet remain in place in a caretaker capacity, unable to enact any new legislation or reforms, instead just keeping the basic functions of gov't running.

• Under the Constitution, the National Assembly must be reconvened by 1 October. This is also the last day that the FY25 budget bill can be presented.
• There will also be significant market focus on efforts to repeal Macron's flagship pension reform. On 31 October, parliamentary business will be handed over to the largest single party, the RN. The party has already said it would use the chance to bring forward legislation to repeal the reform. This could test NFP unity on whether it maintains the 'republican front' in not working with RN or buckles and votes through a Le Pen-supported bill to deliver on its manifesto commitments.
• This scenario may be avoided. In the short pre-Olympic session, the NFP put forward its own repeal bill. However, the only way to guarantee its selection is to have an NFP-led gov't in place. Macron has already rejected Lucie Castets as a PM candidate, claiming she cannot command a majority. However, with the RN saying it will back the NFP repeal bill, if Macron allows a NFP-led gov't to come to power it could spell a reversal of the reforms.