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Pentagon: Pelosi Trip Hasn't Changed Taiwan Equation

US-CHINA

The US Under Secretary of Defence and Policy Colin Kahl has told reporters that he does not believe that United States Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi's (D-CA) visit to Taiwan has not altered Beijing's timeline for retaking the self-governing island by force.

  • Kahl also said that he does not believe that Chinese military drills around the island have had a "profound impact" on Taiwan's economy.
  • In March 2021, US Admiral Philip Davidson warned China could attempt an invasion by 2027. However, this prediction was based upon a evaluation of the perceived gap between US and Chinese military capabilities rather than specific intelligence. Xi Jinping has promised on two occasions that China will be reunified by 2049, but has spoken with ambiguity on plans for Taiwan.
  • New Statesman: "Former CIA analyst John Culver noted on 4 August, it will be conditions, rather than any particular calendar that triggers a Chinese assault on Taiwan, and there are plenty of economic, diplomatic and coercive military measures that will be deployed in the interim. But if China’s rulers saw Taiwan moving towards a permanent break with China and de jure independence, he warned, “they would go to war tomorrow”. Ultimately, this will be the deciding factor for Xi, because as much as he would like to be the one who secures control of the territory, above all else, he does not want to be the leader who loses Taiwan for good."
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The US Under Secretary of Defence and Policy Colin Kahl has told reporters that he does not believe that United States Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi's (D-CA) visit to Taiwan has not altered Beijing's timeline for retaking the self-governing island by force.

  • Kahl also said that he does not believe that Chinese military drills around the island have had a "profound impact" on Taiwan's economy.
  • In March 2021, US Admiral Philip Davidson warned China could attempt an invasion by 2027. However, this prediction was based upon a evaluation of the perceived gap between US and Chinese military capabilities rather than specific intelligence. Xi Jinping has promised on two occasions that China will be reunified by 2049, but has spoken with ambiguity on plans for Taiwan.
  • New Statesman: "Former CIA analyst John Culver noted on 4 August, it will be conditions, rather than any particular calendar that triggers a Chinese assault on Taiwan, and there are plenty of economic, diplomatic and coercive military measures that will be deployed in the interim. But if China’s rulers saw Taiwan moving towards a permanent break with China and de jure independence, he warned, “they would go to war tomorrow”. Ultimately, this will be the deciding factor for Xi, because as much as he would like to be the one who secures control of the territory, above all else, he does not want to be the leader who loses Taiwan for good."