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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
AUSTRALIA DATA
May employment was significantly stronger than expected at +75.9k after a 4k drop in April. It was driven by rises in both full-time (+61.7k) and part-time (+14.3k). The unemployment rate fell to 3.6% while the participation rate rose to 66.9%. This is strong data and signals that April weakness was not a new trend and that the labour market is very tight. So the RBA is likely to tighten further, especially given week’s survey inflation indicators.
- The unemployment rate fell to 3.551%, and so was almost 3.5%, from 3.68% in April – a drop of 0.13pp. The participation rate reached a new series high, which makes this unemployment result even more significant. The rate was driven down by strong jobs plus a 16.5k drop in the number of unemployed, which is now -6.4% y/y.
- In 2023 to date there have been 220k new jobs and employment growth is +3.4% y/y with full-time (FT) +4.1% y/y. 3-month momentum continues to rise for both the total and FT.
- Hours worked fell 1.8% m/m after rising for the three prior months and +2.7% m/m in April. They are +4.8% y/y and 3-momentum is very positive. The ABS noted that labour shortages are being partially met by employees working more hours.
- The only negative spot in the report was the rise in underemployment to its highest since February 2022 but at 6.4% remains historically low. Underutilisation rose to 10%, the third straight increase and the highest since April 2022.
- Population grew another 0.2% m/m to reach a new series high of 2.7% y/y but the employment-to-population ratio rose to a new record. Rising labour supply is helping with shortages and there still seems to be lots of jobs for immigrants, but housing is struggling to meet the demand.
Australia labour market momentum 3m/3m ave ann%
Source: MNI - Market News/ABS
Australia underemployment rate vs underutilisation %
Source: MNI - Market News/ABS
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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