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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Persistent NOK Weakness Tips I-44 to New High
- Norway's I-44 import-weighted exchange rate hit a new YTD high Friday at 122.18 - and further strength in EUR/NOK will continue to pile pressure on the gauge.
- Last week's I44 move keeps the measure decidedly north of the Norges Bank's March projection of 119.50 for Q2 (Dec MPR forecast was just 110.73), meaning a convincing NOK rally will have to follow in order to prevent the Bank revising their FX forecasts further still at June's forecast round.
- This adds further pressure to the bank to raise rates again at the May 4th meeting. Recall the March statement specifically flagged the weaker NOK as pushing up future inflation - an issue that has only worsened over the past month.
- Key upside level in EUR/NOK crosses at 11.7486 - the 61.8% retracement for the 2020-2022 downleg and could come into play should the Apr'20 high of 11.6966 give way.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.