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Persistent NOK Weakness Tips I-44 to New High

FOREX
  • Norway's I-44 import-weighted exchange rate hit a new YTD high Friday at 122.18 - and further strength in EUR/NOK will continue to pile pressure on the gauge.
  • Last week's I44 move keeps the measure decidedly north of the Norges Bank's March projection of 119.50 for Q2 (Dec MPR forecast was just 110.73), meaning a convincing NOK rally will have to follow in order to prevent the Bank revising their FX forecasts further still at June's forecast round.
  • This adds further pressure to the bank to raise rates again at the May 4th meeting. Recall the March statement specifically flagged the weaker NOK as pushing up future inflation - an issue that has only worsened over the past month.
  • Key upside level in EUR/NOK crosses at 11.7486 - the 61.8% retracement for the 2020-2022 downleg and could come into play should the Apr'20 high of 11.6966 give way.
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