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Peru Central Bank Analyst Views – Jan 2022

PERU
  • **BBVA: The BCRP changed the forward guidance component, signaling further hikes. BBVA expect the Central Bank to continue hiking, putting the reference rate at its neutral level in the second quarter.
  • **Goldman Sachs: The forward guidance paragraph now deems it “convenient to continue with the normalization of monetary policy in the coming months”. GS see these changes as a clear signal that additional near-term rate hikes are likely given the current and expected inflation dynamics.
  • - In their assessment, the low ex-ante real policy rate level (still negative), the recurrent inflation surprises, deteriorating short- and medium-term inflation and PEN expectations, heightened political and policy uncertainty, and broad risk management considerations warrant additional rate hikes and a frontloaded monetary policy normalization path to at least a neutral policy stance.
  • **JPMorgan: The wording changes within the statement convey a more hawkish stance, in their view. JPM now expect the policy rate to reach 5% by 2Q22, driving the ex-ante real rates 80bp higher than the 2015-18 average level.
EM BulletCentral Bank of Peru - ReviewHomepageEM Central Bank ReviewLatAm Bank - ReviewEM Central Bank ReportsBulletEmerging Market News
EM BulletCentral Bank of Peru - ReviewHomepageEM Central Bank ReviewLatAm Bank - ReviewEM Central Bank ReportsBulletEmerging Market News

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