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PERU: Scotiabank Sees Upside Risks To Growth As Private Investment Recovers

PERU
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  • Overall, GDP growth is coming in a bit better than Scotiabank had been expecting and is trending marginally above their full year forecast of 3.0%, which they now see as having an upside. Their forecast for Q4 growth is 3.3% y/y.
  • Scotiabank notes that domestic demand was robust in Q3, rising by 4.4% y/y, excluding the drag from inventories. In particular, private investment rose by a multi-year high of 4.0% y/y, linked to an ongoing acceleration in infrastructure projects tendered by the government and those surrounding the new Chancay port. Scotia expects investment to pick up even more speed in 2025. Export growth was also strong, while public sector expenditure continued to outperform the overall economy.
  • On the inflation front, the key prices Scotia tracks are pointing to a monthly print of 0.1% m/m for November. If this figure is confirmed, annual inflation would increase from 2.0% to 2.3% y/y, which would be in line with their forecast of 2.4% for the full year.
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  • Overall, GDP growth is coming in a bit better than Scotiabank had been expecting and is trending marginally above their full year forecast of 3.0%, which they now see as having an upside. Their forecast for Q4 growth is 3.3% y/y.
  • Scotiabank notes that domestic demand was robust in Q3, rising by 4.4% y/y, excluding the drag from inventories. In particular, private investment rose by a multi-year high of 4.0% y/y, linked to an ongoing acceleration in infrastructure projects tendered by the government and those surrounding the new Chancay port. Scotia expects investment to pick up even more speed in 2025. Export growth was also strong, while public sector expenditure continued to outperform the overall economy.
  • On the inflation front, the key prices Scotia tracks are pointing to a monthly print of 0.1% m/m for November. If this figure is confirmed, annual inflation would increase from 2.0% to 2.3% y/y, which would be in line with their forecast of 2.4% for the full year.