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Peso Edges Higher After BSP Flags Works On Policy Normalisation Plan

PHP

Spot USD/PHP trades -0.013 at PHP51.325 in the wake of yesterday's BSP monetary policy decision. Bears look for a sell-off past Feb 10 low of PHP51.210 before taking aim at Feb 3/Jan 5 lows of PHP50.920/50.900. Bulls keep an eye on key resistance from PHP51.500.

  • USD/PHP 1-month NDF last -0.030 at PHP51.430. Bears see Feb 1 low of PHP50.830 as their initial target, while bulls would be pleased by a rally above Feb 8 high of PHP51.780.
  • The BSP kept its benchmark policy rate unchanged on Thursday but raised its 2022 and 2023 inflation forecasts, citing higher global oil prices and domestic food inflation. The Monetary Board for the first time indicated that they will "continue to carefully develop" policy normalisation plans, amid recovery in economic growth and labour market conditions. Note that these tweaks to language came after Gov Diokno repeatedly said that the BSP is unlikely to raise rates by the second half of the year.
  • Fitch affirmed the Philippines' credit rating at BBB, the second-lowest investment score.
  • The Philippine data docket is virtually empty next week, albeit overall BoP may hit the wires at some point over the coming days (there is no fixed time of the release).
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