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Peso Firms After Holiday, Diokno Sees Aug CPI Within +4.1%-4.9% Y/Y Range

PHP

Philippine markets reopen after the National Heroes Day, with spot USD/PHP resuming its decline. The rate last operates -0.150 at PHP49.800, narrowing in on Aug 26 low of PHP49.752. A clean break here would bring Aug 4 low of PHP49.605 into play. On the top side, a rally above Aug 27 high of PHP50.145 would expose Aug 19 high of PHP50.615.

  • USD/PHP 1-month NDF sits -0.030 at PHP49.890, with bears setting their sights on Aug 26 low of PHP49.400. Bulls keep an eye on Aug 27 high of PHP50.240.
  • BSP Gov Diokno told reporters that the central bank expects consumer-price inflation to settle within +4.1%-4.9% Y/Y range this month. Higher LPG, electricity and food prices as well as peso weakness are seen as key drivers of inflation, but may be offset by cheaper oil and lower rice prices to some degree.
  • Separately, the PSA reported that Philippine PPI fell 1.5% Y/Y in July after a revised decline of -2.6% recorded in June.
  • OCTA Research Group said Monday that the National Capital Region may see a downward trend in new Covid-19 cases from mid-Sep, but healthcare utilisation rate may remain elevated.
  • Senator Bong Go on Monday formally declined the endorsement of the ruling PDP-Laban party to be its candidate for President.
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