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COLOMBIA: Petro Calls For Lower Interest Rates, Q4 Current Account, Feb PMI

COLOMBIA
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  • Over the weekend, President Petro asked the central bank to reduce interest rates to aid the economy and support the agricultural sector. His comments were directed towards the new members of the central bank’s board, Laura Moisa and Cesar Giraldo, for whom the March 31 MPC meeting will be their first. The central bank has maintained a cautious tone recently, opting to unexpectedly pause its easing cycle in January, although it is still expected to deliver a 25bp rate cut later this month, according to recent survey data.
  • Friday’s February CPI data will have bearing on the decision, with both headline and core inflation expected to edge lower, but remain above the 5% mark amid a large minimum wage increase and rising energy prices.
  • Before then, February PMI data are due at 1500GMT(1000ET) today, as well as Q4 current account figures, followed by January exports tomorrow. Analysts expect the current account deficit to edge up to $2bn in Q4. On the political front, President Petro is expected to announce further changes to his Cabinet this week.
    • 4Q Current Account Balance, est. -$2b, prior -$1.67b
    • Feb. Davivienda PMI Mfg, prior 53.8
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  • Over the weekend, President Petro asked the central bank to reduce interest rates to aid the economy and support the agricultural sector. His comments were directed towards the new members of the central bank’s board, Laura Moisa and Cesar Giraldo, for whom the March 31 MPC meeting will be their first. The central bank has maintained a cautious tone recently, opting to unexpectedly pause its easing cycle in January, although it is still expected to deliver a 25bp rate cut later this month, according to recent survey data.
  • Friday’s February CPI data will have bearing on the decision, with both headline and core inflation expected to edge lower, but remain above the 5% mark amid a large minimum wage increase and rising energy prices.
  • Before then, February PMI data are due at 1500GMT(1000ET) today, as well as Q4 current account figures, followed by January exports tomorrow. Analysts expect the current account deficit to edge up to $2bn in Q4. On the political front, President Petro is expected to announce further changes to his Cabinet this week.
    • 4Q Current Account Balance, est. -$2b, prior -$1.67b
    • Feb. Davivienda PMI Mfg, prior 53.8