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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
AUSTRALIA DATA
- On Thursday, September consumer inflation expectations are published; a measure being watched for the continued anchoring of prices. They have fallen the last two months and now stand at 5.9%. Petrol price developments suggest that they likely moderated further in September.
- Petrol prices have had a considerable influence on inflation expectations and consumer confidence this year. They peaked in early July and have fallen every month since then to be 22.5% below the top, and inflation expectations fell in each of those months too.
- According to the Australian Petroleum Institute, prices are also down 2.5% m/m for September to date, and so expectations are likely to moderate again.
Consumer inflation expectations depending on petrol prices
Source: MNI - Market News, Australian Institute of Petroleum, Refinitiv
- The tentative trough in consumer confidence in September could also be due to the decline in prices at the pump, as cheaper petrol seems to improve sentiment (see chart below).
- However, the 22.1c fuel levy is scheduled to return on September 29, which will result in a significant increase in petrol bills. Despite talk of a slowing in RBA hikes, we could see consumer confidence moderate and inflation expectations rise again in October/November. Given the policy nature, the RBA is likely to look through this volatility.
Consumer confidence responds to petrol prices
Source: MNI - Market News, Australian Institute of Petroleum, Refinitiv
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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