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Philly Fed Figures Suggest Increasing Manufacturing Weakness

US DATA

Looking into that weak June Philly Fed number:

  • -3.3 for current activity (vs +5.0 expected, 2.6 prior) is the first negative reading since May 2020
  • First negative reading for future activity since Dec 2008 to -6.8
  • Future new orders index down 24 points to -7.4
  • New orders and shipments down sharply
  • Employment moved up
  • "Widespread price increases" evident in prices paid and prices received survey (ie still extremely elevated), but the overall prices paid index fell for the 2nd consecutive month (lowest since Feb 2021) and received prices down as well.
  • Overall these figures are suggestive of a manufacturing recession and - alongside weak housing starts figures - helped the Tsy curve steepen with contracts bouncing from session lows.

Source: Philadelphia Fed

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