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PHP: USD/PHP Tracking Lower, Bumper BoP Surplus Aiding

PHP
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USD/PHP is tracking lower in the first part of Monday dealing, the pair last near 57.30/35. This is up around 0.35% in PHP terms (early lows were at 57.26). The nearest EMA support point is at the 100-day near 57.05. Recent highs remain marked around 57.92.

  • PHP is still comfortably weaker October to date (-2.3%) but has fallen less than THB, KRW and MYR.
  • Data from late on Friday around the healthy overall BoP surplus (above $3.5bn), which was highs back to late 2020/early 2021, is likely helping at the margins.
  • Cross asset moves will also be a positive, with oil prices dropping further at the end of last week. Local equities are more range bound, but still imply higher local FX levels. Net equity inflows have been positive in October to date (nearly $75mn).
  • Onshore political disharmony between President Marcos Jr and VP Sara Duterte doesn't appear to be impacting sentiment at this stage.
  • The data calendar is very quiet this week, with just budget balance data on Oct 24.  

 

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USD/PHP is tracking lower in the first part of Monday dealing, the pair last near 57.30/35. This is up around 0.35% in PHP terms (early lows were at 57.26). The nearest EMA support point is at the 100-day near 57.05. Recent highs remain marked around 57.92.

  • PHP is still comfortably weaker October to date (-2.3%) but has fallen less than THB, KRW and MYR.
  • Data from late on Friday around the healthy overall BoP surplus (above $3.5bn), which was highs back to late 2020/early 2021, is likely helping at the margins.
  • Cross asset moves will also be a positive, with oil prices dropping further at the end of last week. Local equities are more range bound, but still imply higher local FX levels. Net equity inflows have been positive in October to date (nearly $75mn).
  • Onshore political disharmony between President Marcos Jr and VP Sara Duterte doesn't appear to be impacting sentiment at this stage.
  • The data calendar is very quiet this week, with just budget balance data on Oct 24.