February 09, 2023 10:14 GMT
Pill seems to be leaning towards rates on hold as long as data don't surprise
- Pill's annual report contains a lot less "news" than Haskel's.
- The key bit is here: "There is no room for complacency. Inflation remains unacceptably high. Returning inflation to target in a sustainable manner requires that the MPC continues to be watchful for signs of greater persistence in inflationary pressures than is embodied in our baseline forecast."
- We had previously viewed Pill as the hawkish of the three most centrist members in our view (the other two being Bailey and Broadbent). These comments leave options open to leaving rates on hold or probably smaller 25bp hikes, probably with a bias to voting for an on hold decision if the data doesn't surprise. There's not really anything in the report that would suggest he would lean towards another 50bp.