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PINCH UPDATE: Perceived progress on US-China.....>

US
US: PINCH UPDATE: Perceived progress on US-China trade talks has underpinned a
recovery in risk sentiment (epitomised by the ongoing equity rally and strong
rebound in US HY since the beginning of the year) with the market concomitantly
dialling back expectations of a policy rate cut this year. However, with trade
talks still ongoing and uncertainty lingering over domestic policy (the border
wall funding issue remains unresolved), the market has been cautious of turning
more hawkish on monetary policy. The forward curve is relatively flat with MNI
PINCH attributing a small residual probability of a hike through most of the
year, having priced in a ~50% chance of a December cut as recently as last
month.
* Please see: https://emedia.marketnews.com/MNI_PINCH_UPDATE.pdf

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