PL2050 Establishing Itself As Prime Challenger To PiS According To Polls

Recent opinion polls in Poland are showing that the pro-EU, big tent Poland 2050 (PL2050) of former TV personality Szymon Holownia is establishing itself as the main opposition to the incumbent United Right coalition, dominated by the conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party.

• Poland, United Surveys poll: PiS: 37%, PL2050: 21% (+3), Civic Coalition (KO): 20% (-4), Lewica (Left): 10% (-2), Polish People's Party (PSL): 6% (+2), Confederation (Kon): 5%. +/- vs. 22 January 2021. Fieldwork: 9 April 2021. Sample size: 1,000
• Poland, United Surveys poll: Scenario: SP and P run alone: PiS: 35% (-6), PL2050: 19% (+8), KO: 19% (-5), Lewica: 12% (+5), PSL: 6% (+1), Kon: 5% (-3), United Poland (SP): 3%, Agreement (P): 2%. +/- vs. 18-19 Sept '20. Fieldwork: 9 Apr '21. Sample size: 1,000
• In the second of the two polls above, the voting scenario is that the right-wing United Right coalition has fractured with the centre-right Agreement party (P) and socially conservative United Poland (SP) contesting the election as separate parties rather than alongside PiS.
• In both polls, Deputy PM Jaroslaw Kaczynski's PiS lead the way, but it is unlikely that the current polling numbers would result in a majority for the party.
• While the next election is not due until 2023, there have been significant political ructions within the United Right coalition in recent months, and the gov'ts majority in parliament is slim, raising the risk of a snap election should United Poland or Agreement pull their support for PM Mateusz Morawiecki's gov't.
• In order to oust PiS, PL2050 and the centre-right liberal Civic Coalition (KO) would likely have to join together to form a coalition. KO is the more established party, with its forerunner - the Civic Platform - having governed Poland from 2007-2015 under Donald Tusk and Ewa Kopacz. However, rising support for PL2050 could see a party of relatively inexperience political operators thrust into the position of senior coalition partner.