PL2050 Overtake Civic Coalition In Latest Polls, United Right Still Lead

The big-tent pro-EU Poland 2050 (PL2050) movement has overtaken the main opposition centre-right Civic Coalition (KO) in the latest opinion polls. PL2050 sprung out of the 2020 presidential campaign of TV personality Szymon Holownia and has rapidly gained support with its avowedly pro-EU, environmentalist message. The social conservative Law and Justice (PiS), which governs as part of the United Right coalition, remains the most popular party.

• Social Changes poll: United Right (ZR): 30% (+1), Poland 2050: 23%, Civic Coalition (KO): 17% (-3), The Left (Lewica): 12% (+2), Confederation (KON): 10% (+1) Kukuz'15 (K'15): 3% (-2), Polish People's Party (PSL): 3% (+1) .+/- vs. 5-8 Feb. Fieldwork: 12-15 Feb '21. Sample size: 1,095
• PGB Opinium poll: ZR: 31.2% (-3.5), PL2050: 20.6% (+6.3), KO: 19% (-1.8), Lewica: 7.5% (-1.1), KON: 8.2% (+1.7), PSL: 4.9% (-0.6) .+/- vs. 20-21 Jan. Fieldwork: 15-16 Feb '21. Sample size: 1,100
• Poland is not due to hold a general election until Nov 2023 at the latest, but the governing coalition holds a majority of only 3 seats in the 460-member Sejm (parliament). There have also been notable ructions within the United Right gov't in recent months and the prospect of the coalition collapsing cannot be discounted.
• In this event, PL2050 could be in a position to challenge the United Right at the head of a liberal pro-EU alliance should they work with the Civic Coalition based on recent polling.