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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
POLAND
- The sharp consolidation in PLN in the past two months has been supporting Polish equities since their local low reached in the end of November.
- The chart below shows that to the exception of 2021 (most of the year), periods of PLN strength have been associated with higher WIG20 and vice versa.
- Last year, while the political instability and the uncertainty over the NBP policy outlook was weighing on the zloty, the global rise in liquidity kept supporting domestic risky asset such as equities, leading to a strong divergence between the two times series (WIG20 and USDPLN inverted).
- Even though support for PLN could continue to grow in the short term as traders keep chasing the interest rates differential, the zloty still carries political risk due to the on-going tensions with the EU bloc.
- In addition, momentum on the USD could resume as the Fed starts hiking it policy rates.
- Therefore, the deceleration in global liquidity combined with a renewed periods of PLN weakness leave Polish equities vulnerable in the medium term.
Source: Bloomberg/MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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