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PLN: Strong Showing From Zloty Despite Heavy Losses For WIG20

PLN

The zloty outperforms its CE3 peers (and most EMEA peers save for the ZAR), with EUR/PLN last trading 110 pips shy of neutral levels at 4.2919. The technical picture remains broadly unchanged, with bears looking for another attempt to get through the 4.25 zone, with the key near-term support defined at 4.2471, which limited losses on two occasions in May and July. On the topside, a convincing break above 4.30 would give bulls a green light for targeting Jul 2 high of 4.3321.

  • The POLGB curve has shifted lower, with yields last seen 0.8-2.6bp below unchanged levels. This morning sees a pause in the recent tightening of 10-year POLGB/Bund spread but it stays near its multi-week narrows.
  • The WIG20 Index gapped lower at the re-open and last operates 1.1% below its previous close, with Polish stocks in retreat amid the global equity rout. The index has now crossed below its 200-DMA for the first time since autumn 2023.
  • A senior official from the NBP's analytical department will speak on "monetary policy strategies" later today.
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The zloty outperforms its CE3 peers (and most EMEA peers save for the ZAR), with EUR/PLN last trading 110 pips shy of neutral levels at 4.2919. The technical picture remains broadly unchanged, with bears looking for another attempt to get through the 4.25 zone, with the key near-term support defined at 4.2471, which limited losses on two occasions in May and July. On the topside, a convincing break above 4.30 would give bulls a green light for targeting Jul 2 high of 4.3321.

  • The POLGB curve has shifted lower, with yields last seen 0.8-2.6bp below unchanged levels. This morning sees a pause in the recent tightening of 10-year POLGB/Bund spread but it stays near its multi-week narrows.
  • The WIG20 Index gapped lower at the re-open and last operates 1.1% below its previous close, with Polish stocks in retreat amid the global equity rout. The index has now crossed below its 200-DMA for the first time since autumn 2023.
  • A senior official from the NBP's analytical department will speak on "monetary policy strategies" later today.