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PLN, ZAR Top EM Pile Ahead of Fed Rate Decision

CROSS ASSET
  • The greenback is facing moderate pressure and e-mini S&P futures have continued to print fresh YtD highs amid increasing risk sentiment as markets price in a “skip” decision at today’s FOMC meeting. The DXY Index trades 0.17% in the red at the time of typing, though remains off yesterday’s lows for now while EURUSD looks to break 1.0811, the 50-day EMA. The AUD/USD rally off the May 31 low has seen the pair post higher lows for 10 consecutive sessions, the longest such streak since end-2017, which extended to 16 consecutive sessions and spanned a ~5% rally.
  • In EM, ZAR starts the session as the strongest performer in the space having ended an 8-day streak of gains against USD yesterday. PLN strength is notable this morning despite market cautiousness ahead of the Court of Justice of the European Union's verdict on CHF mortgages tomorrow – the currency outperforms its CE3 peers (PLNHUF: +0.75%).
  • The FOMC rate decision is the key event of the session. Consensus sees the committee holding rates at 5.00-5.25% while signalling that it currently expects to hike at the following meeting in July.
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