August 08, 2024 09:05 GMT
PLN: Zloty Edges Higher Together With Regional Peers
PLN
EUR/PLN snaps a three-day winning streak but has struggled to return below the 200-DMA after breaking above that moving average yesterday. The CE3 segment outperforms in the EMEA basket, but the zloty lags its regional peers (PLN/CZK just shy of neutral levels; PLN/HUF -0.1%).
- Elsewhere in the region, the National Bank of Romania trimmed its policy rate by 25bp yesterday, even as a slim majority of analysts (12/20 of economists polled by Bloomberg) was looking for an on-hold decision. PLN-oriented market participants are monitoring interest-rate trajectories in the region as well as the US, with the NBP traditionally skipping a rate review in August.
- ING wrote that strong fundamentals should push EUR/PLN towards 4.25 this month, but the US election remains a key downside risk further ahead. Millennium Bank see the pair's oscillations as reactions to technical signals amid an empty local calendar. Pekao say that the rate has touched significant resistance levels around 4.32.
- EUR/PLN last deals -47 pips at 4.3220 and bears look for losses towards Jul 26 low of 4.2671, which would bring the 4.25 area into play again. Bulls still keep an eye on 4.3321, which capped gains on Jul 2.
- POLGB yields are a touch higher across the curve, with 2s underperforming, following a weak session for local bonds yesterday. 10-year POLGB/Bund spread continues to recover from recent cyclical lows.
- The WIG20 continues to operate on a softer footing. The index sits 1.2% lower on the session, printing new cyclical lows.
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