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PLN: Zloty Sticks Close To Neutral Levels After Last Week's Rally

PLN
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EUR/PLN trades flat after charting a series of bullish candlesticks last week and moving past its 200-DMA in the process. The rate last deals at 4.3176, just a touch higher on the day, with bulls looking for gains towards Aug 9 high of 4.3309. Conversely, bears see the 50-EMA (4.2861) as their initial target.

  • NBP's Joanna Tyrowicz reaffirmed her view that there is no room for interest-rate cuts in Poland, even as most of her colleagues believe that conditions may be ripe to discuss loosening policy in early 2025. Criticising the central bank's inflation-fighting record, Tyrowicz insisted that none of the NBP's forecasting models shows that it will be justified to lower interest rates next year.
  • POLGBs are softer across the curve, with yields last seen 7.1-9.0bp higher across the curve. 10-year POLGB/Bund spread continues to trend towards wider levels, albeit it has struggled to pierce the 325bp level. Worth noting that last week Poland's Public Debt Department chief Karol Czarnecki told MNI that Poland will be able to meet next year's record-high gross borrowing needs without a major uptick in issuance, but will seek more foreign debt investors.
  • The WIG20 Index comes under pressure, sits 0.6% below neutral levels.
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EUR/PLN trades flat after charting a series of bullish candlesticks last week and moving past its 200-DMA in the process. The rate last deals at 4.3176, just a touch higher on the day, with bulls looking for gains towards Aug 9 high of 4.3309. Conversely, bears see the 50-EMA (4.2861) as their initial target.

  • NBP's Joanna Tyrowicz reaffirmed her view that there is no room for interest-rate cuts in Poland, even as most of her colleagues believe that conditions may be ripe to discuss loosening policy in early 2025. Criticising the central bank's inflation-fighting record, Tyrowicz insisted that none of the NBP's forecasting models shows that it will be justified to lower interest rates next year.
  • POLGBs are softer across the curve, with yields last seen 7.1-9.0bp higher across the curve. 10-year POLGB/Bund spread continues to trend towards wider levels, albeit it has struggled to pierce the 325bp level. Worth noting that last week Poland's Public Debt Department chief Karol Czarnecki told MNI that Poland will be able to meet next year's record-high gross borrowing needs without a major uptick in issuance, but will seek more foreign debt investors.
  • The WIG20 Index comes under pressure, sits 0.6% below neutral levels.