PM Borne To Announce Pension Reform Proposals, Risks Major Backlash

Later today Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne is set to announce the Macron administration's plans for major pensions reform today in a move that could spark notable industrial and social unrest. France has one of the industrialised world's most generous pension systems, and it has been an aim of President Emmanuel Macron to reform the programme in order to reduce the sizeable deficit generated by the system.

• The pension age is seen as likely to rise from 62 to 64 (a concession on Macron's part, who had been pushing for 65). In an effort to mitigate the impact, AFP reports an increase to the minimum monthly stipend to EUR1,200 and support for those who have not worked continuously. Budget Minister Gabriel Attal stated on 8 Jan that without reform, the pension system would add EUR500bn to France's debt load over the next 25 years.
• Trade unions have already voiced opposition to the plans, and there are concerns of a repeat of the 'gilets jaunes' protests that rocked the first years of Macron's presidency. Those protests began in opposition to gov't fuel policies, but broadened into a more general anti-gov't movement.
• Macron's centrist Renaissance group and its allies do not hold a majority in the National Assembly, meaning one of two possibilities for the reforms:
  1. The gov't relies on the support of opposition parties, most likely the centre-right Gaullist Les Republicains, to pass the reforms. New party head Eric Ciotti, despite being a right-winger opposed to Macon, stated in an interview with Le Journal du Dimanche on 8 Jan that he could see LR supporting reforms if the minimum pension level is raised.
  2. The gov't forces the reforms through parliament without a vote under Article 49.3 of the French Constitution. This is a very risky process, and would likely see a confidence vote in the gov't that could bring down the administration.