PM Costa's Socialists Hold Onto Polling Lead As Early Voting Underway

Prime Minister Antonio Costa's centre-left Socialist Party has extended its narrow lead over the main opposition centre-right Social Democrats in the latest opinion poll ahead of the 30 January legislative election. Some of the result will already be 'baked in' by that point, with early voting beginning on 23 January in an effort to avoid large crowds at polling stations amidst a wave of Omicron infections.

• Pitagórica poll: Socialist Party (PS): 35% (+1), Social Democrats (PSD: 31% (-3), Chega: 7%, Left Bloc (BE): 6%, Unitary Democratic Coalition (CDU): 5%, Liberal Initiative (IL): 5%, People Animals Nature (PAN): 2%, Christian Democrats-People's Party (CDS/PP): 2% (+1). +/- vs 19-22 Jan. Fieldwork: 20-23 January 2022. Sample size: 608
• The prospect of the PS winning an outright majority is slim as the party would need around 41-44% of the vote to win over 50% of seats in the Assembly of the Republic. The re-formation of the previous leftist gov't formed by the PS, the populist left-wing Left Bloc and the communist Unitary Democratic Coalition seems unlikely given that the three parties had a significant falling out over the state budget at the end of 2021, which sparked the early election.
• As such, a minority PS gov't or even a 'grand coalition' formed with the PSD are both plausible outcomes from the vote. In terms of policy impact the election could see a shift towards the political centre ground in Portugal in the event both the BE and CDU are excluded from the next gov't.