Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Prime Minister Alberto Costa's centre-left Socialist Party (PS) retains a healthy lead over the main opposition centre-right Social Democrats (PSD) ahead of the 30 January general election. The PS has generally polled around the 35-40% level in recent weeks, around the same level of support the party recieved in the 2019 election (36.3%). The PSD has recorded something of an upswing in support since the calling of the election (see chart below), but still sits behind the PS, on around 28-35% support.
Chart 1. Portugal General Election Opinion Polling, %
Source: Intercampus, Pitagorica, CESOP, ICS, Aximage, Eurosondagem, MNI. N.b. Dot indivates individual poll result, trendline is 5-poll moving average.
- Based on current polling, the PS would likely fall short of winning an overall majority in the unicameral 230-member Assembly of the Republic. The outgoing gov't was formed by the PS, and the socialist Left Bloc (BE) and communist-green Unitary Democratic Coalition (UDC). While this coalition would likely retain an overall majority, its collapse over gov't budget proposals sparked the snap election.
- The PSD is unlikely to have enough support from other right-wing parties so form a majority coalition, with its historic ally, the Christian democrat CDS-People's Party in the political doldrums.
- As such, a grand coalition between the PS and PSD could prove one of the few workable majority gov'ts. Alternatively, Costa could seek to have the PS govern as a minority with support in the form of confidence-and-supply agreements.
- The right-wing populist CHEGA! (Enough) could come in third place. Portugal had previously been one of the few European nations without a right-wing populist party coming into the mainstream, but this looks set to change.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.