PM Marin's Gov't Retains Poll Lead, But Coalition Talks To Prove Key

There is now less than a month until the Finnish general election, taking place on April 2, and opinion polling shows that the five-party centre-left coalition of PM Sanna Marin holds a narrow lead over the combined parties of the opposition. However, Marin's centre-left Social Democrats (SDP) are vying with the right-wing nationalist Finns Party (PS), and the centre-right National Coalition Party (Kok) for first place. Coalition negotiations post-election will prove key to determining Finland's political direction over the coming term.

• The party that emerges with a plurality of seats in the 200-member Parliament will likely receive the initial mandate from President Sauli Niinisto to seek to form a governing coalition. Average polling in 2023 shows a toss-up on which party will emerge as the largest, with Kok on 21.9%, PS on 19.2%, and the SDP on 19.1%.
• Post-election, a change in stance on Finland's NATO accession will not happen, with all governing parties voicing support for joining the alliance. The main shift could come in gov't spending, with parties of the right advocating for greater fiscal restraint compared to Marin's left-leaning administration.
• Moreover, the Finnish gov't will remain - at the EU level - one of the more 'frugal' nations opposed to joint debt issuance or other fiscal loosening by the European Commission (see 'Balancing Act To Keep EU Fiscal Reform On Course-Officials)

Source: Taloustutkimus, Kantar Public, MNI